Pheu Thai faces majority test

The recent success of the House of Representatives in removing the double-majority clause from the referendum bill and replacing it with a simple majority is just the first triumph. The fight continues.
The Pheu Thai Party joined forces with its former ally, the People’s Party — an offshoot of the now-defunct Move Forward Party — to secure a simple majority for the bill, discarding the double-majority version previously endorsed by the Senate. With Bhumjaithai’s abstention, the clause on the simple majority passed with a vote of 348-0 on Oct 9.
Pheu Thai and the People’s Party have campaigned to rewrite the coup-sponsored constitution and want the amendment process to be easier, such as by revising it section by section in parliament or through a single public referendum.
The double-majority rule requires that at least 50% of the total eligible voters — 52 million people — must cast their votes in the first round. Then, the outcome of the referendum must be supported by at least half of those voters who turn up at polling stations. Each referendum costs about three billion baht to conduct. Needless to say, the double majority would have complicated the amendment process, making it more time-consuming for those who wish to see quick changes.
Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, however, defended his party’s decision to abstain, saying it was “for the sake of being thorough.” Mr Anutin, who is also the deputy prime minister and interior minister, said his party was open to opinions from the Senate and other interested parties, but “the process needs to be careful.”
Really? Proponents of the single referendum argue the simple majority rule should suffice. Those who don’t agree with the amendment should have their voices heard at one time, instead of two. Meanwhile, supporters of the more complex and costlier double referendum believe the charter, as the fundamental law of the country, requires more public participation to ensure decisions are sound and accepted by the majority.
The issue of the referendum is ultimately political, and some pundits are questioning Mr Anutin’s claims. They say Bhumjaithai, the second largest party in the coalition, benefits most from the current military-sponsored charter, which to some extent embraces political connections through families and networks, typically referred to as the “Ban Yai” system.
Such a client-patron system was evident in the Senate election, finalised on June 26, where those closely affiliated with Bhumjaithai, the so-called “blue bloc,” dominated the Upper House. This is probably the reason for the party’s lukewarm reaction to charter amendments.
Undoubtedly, control over the Upper House gives the party an upper hand, given the Senate’s role in selecting members of key independent agencies, such as the Election Commission, the National Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Constitutional Court, to name a few. With an easy win in the Senate poll, Bhumjaithai would prefer the status quo rather than a charter amendment.
The next step is a joint sitting between the House of Representatives and the Senate, expected to take place around mid-December, to deliberate a bill partially amending the 2017 constitution. Under this timeline, the referendum is likely to occur early next year.
A joint panel comprising 28 members from both Houses has been formed. Of the 14 members from the Lower House, four each are from Pheu Thai and the People’s Party, while two are from Bhumjaithai, and one each from Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation, Democrat, and Chartthaipattana. However, all 14 Senate members are reported to belong to the blue bloc under Bhumjaithai.
Despite the panel’s composition, the final decision on the majority rule lies with the Lower House, and it seems a simple majority is the name of the game. Yet this depends on one condition: whether Pheu Thai maintains its stance on the simple majority.
So, all eyes are on the Pheu Thai Party to see if it will keep the simple majority alive. If history serves as a guide, shifts in stance regarding charter amendments are not uncommon for the ruling party.
Somkid Chueakong, the prime minister’s secretary-general, recently conceded there are some differences among the coalition parties regarding the referendum that need to be ironed out.
It would come as no surprise if Bhumjaithai lobbies hard with the ruling party. It may offer attractive deals to persuade Pheu Thai to switch to the double-majority rule.
As the ruling party upholds its commitment to promoting democracy, it is hoped Pheu Thai will keep its word, retaining the simple majority rule for the referendum and placing democracy before its immediate interests. Only by sticking to such promises will the long-overdue charter amendment be back on track.